Nuklearer Winter Inhaltsverzeichnis
bezeichnet die Verdunkelung und Abkühlung der Erdatmosphäre als Folge einer großen Anzahl von Kernwaffenexplosionen. Nuklearer Winter bezeichnet die Verdunkelung und Abkühlung der Erdatmosphäre als Folge einer großen Anzahl von Kernwaffenexplosionen. Der Terminus „nuklearer Winter“ wurde durch eine mit agitatorischem Geschick veröffentliche Studie von Carl Sagan und seinen. Nuklearer Winter: Welche Folgen hätte ein regionaler Atomkrieg für die Welternährung? Ein Krieg mit Nuklearwaffen hätte katastrophale Folgen -. Nuklearer Winter Der Begriff nuklearer Winter bezeichnet die Verdunklung der Erdatmosphäre als Folge der Explosion einer großen Zahl von nuklearen. Nuklearer Winter: Dieser Krieg kühlt. Nukleare Waffengänge würden auch das Erdklima verändern, prophezeit Alan Robock. Die Asche in der. Es ist Uhr vormittags in New York, Uhr abends in Moskau, ein Wochentag Anfang Juni Atomkrieg bricht aus. In der nördlichen Hemisphäre.
In the story a nuclear warhead ignites an oil field, and the soot produced "screens out part of the sun's radiation", resulting in Arctic temperatures for much of the population of North America and the Soviet Union.
The Air Force Geophysics Laboratory publication, An assessment of global atmospheric effects of a major nuclear war by H.
Muench, et al. In general these reports arrive at similar conclusions as they are based on "the same assumptions, the same basic data", with only minor model-code differences.
They skip the modeling steps of assessing the possibility of fire and the initial fire plumes and instead start the modeling process with a "spatially uniform soot cloud" which has found its way into the atmosphere.
Although never openly acknowledged by the multi-disciplinary team who authored the most popular s TTAPS model, in the American Institute of Physics states that the TTAPS team named for its participants, who had all previously worked on the phenomenon of dust storms on Mars, or in the area of asteroid impact events : Richard P.
Turco , Owen Toon , Thomas P. Ackerman, James B. Pollack and Carl Sagan announcement of their results in "was with the explicit aim of promoting international arms control".
In , William J. Crutzen and John Birks began preparing for the publication of a calculation on the effects of nuclear war on stratospheric ozone, using the latest models of the time.
It was after being confronted with these results that they "chanced" upon the notion, as "an afterthought" [9] of nuclear detonations igniting massive fires everywhere and, crucially, the smoke from these conventional fires then going on to absorb sunlight, causing surface temperatures to plummet.
Crutzen and Birks' calculations suggested that smoke particulates injected into the atmosphere by fires in cities, forests and petroleum reserves could prevent up to 99 percent of sunlight from reaching the Earth's surface.
This darkness, they said, could exist "for as long as the fires burned", which was assumed to be many weeks, with effects such as: "The normal dynamic and temperature structure of the atmosphere would After reading a paper by N.
Bochkov and E. Chazov , [94] published in the same edition of Ambio that carried Crutzen and Birks's paper "Twilight at Noon", Soviet atmospheric scientist Georgy Golitsyn applied his research on Mars dust storms to soot in the Earth's atmosphere.
The use of these influential Martian dust storm models in nuclear winter research began in , [95] when the Soviet spacecraft Mars 2 arrived at the red planet and observed a global dust cloud.
The orbiting instruments together with the Mars 3 lander determined that temperatures on the surface of the red-planet were considerably colder than temperatures at the top of the dust cloud.
Following these observations, Golitsyn received two telegrams from astronomer Carl Sagan , in which Sagan asked Golitsyn to "explore the understanding and assessment of this phenomenon.
In the same year Alexander Ginzburg, [96] an employee in Golitsyn's institute, developed a model of dust storms to describe the cooling phenomenon on Mars.
Golitsyn felt that his model would be applicable to soot after he read a Swedish magazine dedicated to the effects of a hypothetical nuclear war between the USSR and the US.
Golitsyn presented his intent to publish this Martian derived Earth-analog model to the Andropov instigated Committee of Soviet Scientists in Defence of Peace Against the Nuclear Threat in May , an organization that Golitsyn would later be appointed a position of vice-chairman of.
Both Golitsyn [] and Sagan [] had been interested in the cooling on the dust storms on the planet Mars in the years preceding their focus on "nuclear winter".
Sagan had also worked on Project A in the s—s, in which he attempted to model the movement and longevity of a plume of lunar soil.
Interest in the environmental effects of nuclear war, however, had continued in the Soviet Union after Golitsyn's September paper, with Vladimir Alexandrov and G.
Stenchikov also publishing a paper in December on the climatic consequences, although in contrast to the contemporary TTAPS paper, this paper was based on simulations with a three-dimensional global circulation model.
Richard Turco and Starley L. Thompson were both critical of the Soviet research. Turco called it "primitive" and Thompson said it used obsolete US computer models.
Phillips to review the state of the science. The smoke resulting would be largely opaque to solar radiation but transparent to infrared, thus cooling the Earth by blocking sunlight, but not creating warming by enhancing the greenhouse effect.
The optical depth of the smoke can be much greater than unity. Forest fires resulting from non-urban targets could increase aerosol production further.
Dust from near-surface explosions against hardened targets also contributes; each megaton-equivalent explosion could release up to five million tons of dust, but most would quickly fall out; high altitude dust is estimated at 0.
Burning of crude oil could also contribute substantially. The 1-D radiative-convective models used in these [ which? All [ which? In a paper entitled "Climate and Smoke: An Appraisal of Nuclear Winter", TTAPS gave a more detailed description of the short- and long-term atmospheric effects of a nuclear war using a three-dimensional model: [12].
One of the major results of TTAPS' paper was the re-iteration of the team's model that oil refinery fires would be sufficient to bring about a small scale, but still globally deleterious nuclear winter.
Following Iraq's invasion of Kuwait and Iraqi threats of igniting the country's approximately oil wells, speculation on the cumulative climatic effect of this, presented at the World Climate Conference in Geneva that November in , ranged from a nuclear winter type scenario, to heavy acid rain and even short term immediate global warming.
In articles printed in the Wilmington Morning Star and the Baltimore Sun newspapers in January , prominent authors of nuclear winter papers — Richard P.
Turco, John W. Birks, Carl Sagan, Alan Robock and Paul Crutzen — collectively stated that they expected catastrophic nuclear winter like effects with continental-sized effects of sub-freezing temperatures as a result of the Iraqis going through with their threats of igniting to pressurized oil wells that could subsequently burn for several months.
As threatened, the wells were set on fire by the retreating Iraqis in March , and the or so burning oil wells were not fully extinguished until November 6, , eight months after the end of the war, [] and they consumed an estimated six million barrels of oil per day at their peak intensity.
When Operation Desert Storm began in January , coinciding with the first few oil fires being lit, Dr.
He also argued that he believed the net effects would be very similar to the explosion of the Indonesian volcano Tambora in , which resulted in the year being known as the " Year Without a Summer ".
Sagan listed modeling outcomes that forecast effects extending to South Asia , and perhaps to the Northern Hemisphere as well.
Sagan stressed this outcome was so likely that "It should affect the war plans. The atmospheric scientist tasked with studying the atmospheric effect of the Kuwaiti fires by the National Science Foundation , Peter Hobbs , stated that the fires' modest impact suggested that "some numbers [used to support the Nuclear Winter hypothesis] The idea of oil well and oil reserve smoke pluming into the stratosphere serving as a main contributor to the soot of a nuclear winter was a central idea of the early climatology papers on the hypothesis; they were considered more of a possible contributor than smoke from cities, as the smoke from oil has a higher ratio of black soot, thus absorbing more sunlight.
In , a nuclear winter study, noted that modern computer models have been applied to the Kuwait oil fires, finding that individual smoke plumes are not able to loft smoke into the stratosphere, but that smoke from fires covering a large area [ quantify ] like some forest fires can lift smoke [ quantify ] into the stratosphere, and recent evidence suggests that this occurs far more often than previously thought.
Stenchikov et al. However, much larger plumes, such as would be generated by city fires, produce large, undiluted mass motion that results in smoke lofting.
New large eddy simulation model results at much higher resolution also give similar lofting to our results, and no small scale response that would inhibit the lofting [Jensen, ].
However the above simulation notably contained the assumption that no dry or wet deposition would occur. Between and , commentators noted that no peer-reviewed papers on "nuclear winter" were published.
Based on new work published in and by some of the authors of the original studies, several new hypotheses have been put forth, primarily the assessment that as few as firestorms would result in a nuclear winter.
Compared to climate change for the past millennium, even the smallest exchange modeled would plunge the planet into temperatures colder than the Little Ice Age the period of history between approximately and AD.
This would take effect instantly, and agriculture would be severely threatened. Larger amounts of smoke would produce larger climate changes, making agriculture impossible for years.
In both cases, new climate model simulations show that the effects would last for more than a decade. A study published in the Journal of Geophysical Research in July , [] titled "Nuclear winter revisited with a modern climate model and current nuclear arsenals: Still catastrophic consequences", [] used current climate models to look at the consequences of a global nuclear war involving most or all of the world's current nuclear arsenals which the authors judged to be one similar to the size of the world's arsenals twenty years earlier.
The authors used a global circulation model, ModelE from the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies , which they noted "has been tested extensively in global warming experiments and to examine the effects of volcanic eruptions on climate.
In the Tg case they found that:. As for the 50 Tg case involving one third of current nuclear arsenals, they said that the simulation "produced climate responses very similar to those for the Tg case, but with about half the amplitude," but that "the time scale of response is about the same.
In , Michael J. The model had outputs, due to the interaction of the soot cloud:. Killing frosts would reduce growing seasons by 10—40 days per year for 5 years.
Surface temperatures would be reduced for more than 25 years, due to thermal inertia and albedo effects in the ocean and expanded sea ice.
The combined cooling and enhanced UV would put significant pressures on global food supplies and could trigger a global nuclear famine.
Research published in the peer-reviewed journal Safety suggested that no nation should possess more than nuclear warheads because of the blowback effect on the aggressor nation's own population because of "nuclear autumn".
The four major, largely independent underpinnings that the nuclear winter concept has and continues to receive criticism over, are regarded as: [] firstly, would cities readily firestorm , and if so how much soot would be generated?
Secondly, atmospheric longevity: would the quantities of soot assumed in the models remain in the atmosphere for as long as projected or would far more soot precipitate as black rain much sooner?
Third, timing of events: how reasonable is it for the modeling of firestorms or war to commence in late spring or summer; this is done in almost all US-Soviet nuclear winter papers, thereby giving rise to the largest possible degree of modeled cooling?
Lastly, the issue of darkness or opacity : how much light-blocking effect the assumed quality of the soot reaching the atmosphere would have.
While the highly popularized initial TTAPS 1-dimensional model forecasts were widely reported and criticized in the media, in part because every later model predicts far less of its "apocalyptic" level of cooling, [] most models continue to suggest that some deleterious global cooling would still result, under the assumption that a large number of fires occurred in the spring or summer.
Thompson's less primitive mids 3-Dimensional model, which notably contained the very same general assumptions, led him to coin the term "nuclear autumn" to more accurately describe the climate results of the soot in this model, in an on camera interview in which he dismisses the earlier "apocalyptic" models.
Kearny cited a Soviet study that modern cities would not burn as firestorms, as most flammable city items would be buried under non-combustible rubble and that the TTAPS study included a massive overestimate on the size and extent of non-urban wildfires that would result from a nuclear war.
Richard D. Small, director of thermal sciences at the Pacific-Sierra Research Corporation similarly disagreed strongly with the model assumptions, in particular the update by TTAPS that argues that some 5, Tg of material would burn in a total US-Soviet nuclear war, as analysis by Small of blueprints and real buildings returned a maximum of 1, Tg of material that could be burned, "assuming that all the available combustible material was actually ignited".
Although Kearny was of the opinion that future more accurate models would "indicate there will be even smaller reductions in temperature", including future potential models that did not so readily accept that firestorms would occur as dependably as nuclear winter modellers assume, in NWSS Kearny did summarize the comparatively moderate cooling estimate of no more than a few days, [] from the Nuclear Winter Reappraised model [] [] by Starley Thompson and Stephen Schneider.
This was done in an effort to convey to his readers that contrary to the popular opinion at the time, in the conclusion of these two climate scientists, "on scientific grounds the global apocalyptic conclusions of the initial nuclear winter hypothesis can now be relegated to a vanishing low level of probability.
However while a article by Brian Martin in Science and Public Policy [] states that although Nuclear Winter Reappraised concluded the US-Soviet "nuclear winter" would be much less severe than originally thought, with the authors describing the effects more as a "nuclear autumn", other statements by Thompson and Schneider [] [] show that they "resisted the interpretation that this means a rejection of the basic points made about nuclear winter".
In the Alan Robock et al. Therefore, a much more limited war [there] could have a much larger effect, because you are putting the smoke in the worst possible place", and "anything that you can do to discourage people from thinking that there is any way to win anything with a nuclear exchange is a good idea.
The contribution of smoke from the ignition of live non-desert vegetation, living forests, grasses and so on, nearby to many missile silos is a source of smoke originally assumed to be very large in the initial "Twilight at Noon" paper, and also found in the popular TTAPS publication.
However, this assumption was examined by Bush and Small in and they found that the burning of live vegetation could only conceivably contribute very slightly to the estimated total "nonurban smoke production".
A paper by the United States Department of Homeland Security , finalized in , states that after a nuclear detonation targeting a city "If fires are able to grow and coalesce, a firestorm could develop that would be beyond the abilities of firefighters to control.
However experts suggest in the nature of modern US city design and construction may make a raging firestorm unlikely". Russell Seitz, Associate of the Harvard University Center for International Affairs, argues that the winter models' assumptions give results which the researchers want to achieve and is a case of "worst-case analysis run amok".
The fire ultimately devastated the region burning the world's largest boreal forest , the size of Germany. Yet it was represented as a "sophisticated one-dimensional model" — a usage that is oxymoronic, unless applied to [the British model Lesley Lawson] Twiggy.
Seitz cited Carl Sagan, adding an emphasis: " In almost any realistic case involving nuclear exchanges between the superpowers, global environmental changes sufficient to cause an extinction event equal to or more severe than that of the close of the Cretaceous when the dinosaurs and many other species died out are likely.
This [is] astronomical mega-hype As the science progressed and more authentic sophistication was achieved in newer and more elegant models, the postulated effects headed downhill.
By , these worst-case effects had melted down from a year of arctic darkness to warmer temperatures than the cool months in Palm Beach!
A new paradigm of broken clouds and cool spots had emerged. The once global hard frost had retreated back to the northern tundra.
Seitz's opposition caused the proponents of nuclear winter to issue responses in the media. The proponents believed it was simply necessary to show only the possibility of climatic catastrophe, often a worst-case scenario, while opponents insisted that to be taken seriously, nuclear winter should be shown as likely under "reasonable" scenarios.
Anspaugh, is upon the question of which season should be used as the backdrop for the US-USSR war models, as most models choose the summer in the Northern Hemisphere as the start point to produce the maximum soot lofting and therefore eventual winter effect, whereas it has been pointed out that if the firestorms occurred in the autumn or winter months, when there is much less intense sunlight to loft soot into a stable region of the stratosphere, the magnitude of the cooling effect from the same number of firestorms as ignited in the summer models, would be negligible according to a January model run by Covey et al.
Anspaugh also expressed frustration that although a managed forest fire in Canada on 3 August is said to have been lit by proponents of nuclear winter, with the fire potentially serving as an opportunity to do some basic measurements of the optical properties of the smoke and smoke-to-fuel ratio, which would have helped refine the estimates of these critical model inputs, the proponents did not indicate that any such measurements were made.
Hobbs , who would later successfully attain funding to fly into and sample the smoke clouds from the Kuwait oil fires in , also expressed frustration that he was denied funding to sample the Canadian, and other forest fires in this way.
In , atmospheric scientist Joyce Penner from the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory published an article in Nature in which she focused on the specific variables of the smoke's optical properties and the quantity of smoke remaining airborne after the city fires and found that the published estimates of these variables varied so widely that depending on which estimates were chosen the climate effect could be negligible, minor or massive.
John Maddox , editor of the journal Nature , issued a series of skeptical comments about nuclear winter studies during his tenure.
Fred Singer was a long term vocal critic of the hypothesis in the journal and in televised debates with Carl Sagan.
In a response to the more modern papers on the hypothesis, Russell Seitz published a comment in Nature challenging Alan Robock's claim that there has been no real scientific debate about the 'nuclear winter' concept.
Strangeloves ", physicist Freeman Dyson of Princeton for example stated "It's an absolutely atrocious piece of science, but I quite despair of setting the public record straight.
William R. In the s Castro was pressuring the Kremlin to adopt a harder line against the US under President Ronald Reagan , even arguing for the potential use of nuclear weapons.
As a direct result of this a Soviet official was dispatched to Cuba in with an entourage of "experts", who detailed the ecological effect on Cuba in the event of nuclear strikes on the United States.
Soon after, the Soviet official recounts, Castro lost his prior "nuclear fever". Robock's 90 minute lecture was later aired on the nationwide state-controlled television station in the country.
However, according to Robock, insofar as getting US government attention and affecting nuclear policy, he has failed.
In , together with Owen Toon , he gave a talk to the United States Congress but nothing transpired from it and the then presidential science adviser, John Holdren , did not respond to their requests in or at the time of writing in In a "Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists" feature, Robock and Toon, who had routinely mixed their disarmament advocacy into the conclusions of their "nuclear winter" papers, [18] argue in the political realm that the hypothetical effects of nuclear winter necessitates that the doctrine they assume is active in Russia and US, " mutually assured destruction " MAD should instead be replaced with their own "self-assured destruction" SAD concept, [] because, regardless of whose cities burned, the effects of the resultant nuclear winter that they advocate, would be, in their view, catastrophic.
In a similar vein, in Carl Sagan and Richard Turco wrote a policy implications paper that appeared in AMBIO that suggested that as nuclear winter is a "well-established prospect", both superpowers should jointly reduce their nuclear arsenals to " Canonical Deterrent Force " levels of — individual warheads each, such that in "the event of nuclear war [this] would minimize the likelihood of [extreme] nuclear winter.
An originally classified US interagency intelligence assessment states that in both the preceding s and 80s, the Soviet and US military were already following the " existing trends " in warhead miniaturization , of higher accuracy and lower yield nuclear warheads, [] this is seen when assessing the most numerous physics packages in the US arsenal, which in the s were the B28 and W31 , however both quickly became less prominent with the s mass production runs of the 50 Kt W68 , the Kt W76 and in the s, with the B Alongside the desire to still destroy hardened targets but while reducing the severity of fallout collateral damage depositing on neighboring, and potentially friendly, countries.
As it relates to the likelihood of nuclear winter, the range of potential thermal radiation ignited fires was already reduced with miniaturization.
For example, the most popular nuclear winter paper, the TTAPS paper, had described a Mt counterforce attack on ICBM sites with each individual warhead having approximately one Mt of energy; however not long after publication, Michael Altfeld of Michigan State University and political scientist Stephen Cimbala of Pennsylvania State University argued that the then already developed and deployed smaller, more accurate warheads e.
W76 , together with lower detonation heights , could produce the same counterforce strike with a total of only 3 Mt of energy being expended.
They continue that, if the nuclear winter models prove to be representative of reality, then far less climatic-cooling would occur, even if firestorm prone areas existed in the target list , as lower fusing heights such as surface bursts, would also limit the range of the burning thermal rays due to terrain masking and shadows cast by buildings, [] while also temporarily lofting far more localized fallout when compared to airburst fuzing — the standard mode of employment against un-hardened targets.
This logic is similarly reflected in the originally classified Interagency Intelligence assessment , which suggests that targeting planners would simply have to consider target combustibility along with yield, height of burst, timing and other factors to reduce the amount of smoke to safeguard against the potentiality of a nuclear winter.
Altfeld and Cimbala also argued that belief in the possibility of nuclear winter would actually make nuclear war more likely, contrary to the views of Sagan and others, because it would serve yet further motivation to follow the existing trends , towards the development of more accurate , and even lower explosive yield, nuclear weapons.
With the latter capabilities of the then, largely still conceptual RNEP, specifically cited by the influential nuclear warfare analyst Albert Wohlstetter.
In an interview in with Mikhail Gorbachev the leader of the Soviet Union from —91 , the following statement was posed to him: "In the s, you warned about the unprecedented dangers of nuclear weapons and took very daring steps to reverse the arms race", with Gorbachev replying "Models made by Russian and American scientists showed that a nuclear war would result in a nuclear winter that would be extremely destructive to all life on Earth; the knowledge of that was a great stimulus to us, to people of honor and morality, to act in that situation.
However, a US Interagency Intelligence Assessment expresses a far more skeptical and cautious approach, stating that the hypothesis is not scientifically convincing.
The report predicted that Soviet nuclear policy would be to maintain their strategic nuclear posture, such as their fielding of the high throw-weight SS missile and they would merely attempt to exploit the hypothesis for propaganda purposes, such as directing scrutiny on the US portion of the nuclear arms race.
Moreover, it goes on to express the belief that if Soviet officials did begin to take nuclear winter seriously, it would probably make them demand exceptionally high standards of scientific proof for the hypothesis, as the implications of it would undermine their military doctrine — a level of scientific proof which perhaps could not be met without field experimentation.
In Time magazine noted "the suspicions of some Western scientists that the nuclear winter hypothesis was promoted by Moscow to give anti-nuclear groups in the U.
In , the Defense Nuclear Agency document An update of Soviet research on and exploitation of Nuclear winter — charted the minimal [public domain] research contribution on, and Soviet propaganda usage of, the nuclear winter phenomenon.
There is some doubt as to when the Soviet Union began modelling fires and the atmospheric effects of nuclear war.
They are said to have distributed to peace groups, the environmental movement and the journal Ambio disinformation based on a faked "doomsday report" by the Soviet Academy of Sciences by Georgii Golitsyn, Nikita Moiseyev and Vladimir Alexandrov concerning the climatic effects of nuclear war.
A number of solutions have been proposed to mitigate the potential harm of a nuclear winter if one appears inevitable; with the problem being attacked at both ends, from those focusing on preventing the growth of fires and therefore limiting the amount of smoke that reaches the stratosphere in the first place, and those focusing on food production with reduced sunlight, with the assumption that the very worst-case analysis results of the nuclear winter models prove accurate and no other mitigation strategies are fielded.
In a report from , techniques included various methods of applying liquid nitrogen, dry ice, and water to nuclear-caused fires.
According to the report, one of the most promising techniques investigated was initiation of rain from seeding of mass-fire thunderheads and other clouds passing over the developing, and then stable, firestorm.
Seaweed, like mushrooms, can also grow in low-light conditions. Dandelions and tree needles could provide Vitamin C, and bacteria could provide Vitamin E.
More conventional cold-weather crops such as potatoes might get sufficient sunlight at the equator to remain feasible.
The minimum annual global wheat storage is approximately 2 months. There is however the danger that if a sudden rush to food stockpiling occurs without the buffering effect offered by Victory gardens etc.
Despite the name "nuclear winter", nuclear events are not necessary to produce the modeled climatic effect.
Besides the more common suggestion to inject sulfur compounds into the stratosphere to approximate the effects of a volcanic winter, the injection of other chemical species such as the release of a particular type of soot particle to create minor "nuclear winter" conditions, has been proposed by Paul Crutzen and others.
Similar climatic effects to "nuclear winter" followed historical supervolcano eruptions, which plumed sulfate aerosols high into the stratosphere, with this being known as a volcanic winter.
Pollack, Toon and others were involved in developing models of Titan's climate in the late s, at the same time as their early nuclear winter studies.
Similarly, extinction-level comet and asteroid impacts are also believed to have generated impact winters by the pulverization of massive amounts of fine rock dust.
This pulverized rock can also produce "volcanic winter" effects, if sulfate -bearing rock is hit in the impact and lofted high into the air, [] and "nuclear winter" effects, with the heat of the heavier rock ejecta igniting regional and possibly even global forest firestorms.
This global "impact firestorms" hypothesis, initially supported by Wolbach, H. Jay Melosh and Owen Toon, suggests that as a result of massive impact events, the small sand-grain -sized ejecta fragments created can meteorically re-enter the atmosphere forming a hot blanket of global debris high in the air, potentially turning the entire sky red-hot for minutes to hours, and with that, burning the complete global inventory of above-ground carbonaceous material, including rain forests.
The global firestorm winter, however, has been questioned in more recent years — by Claire Belcher, [] [] [] Tamara Goldin [] [] [] and Melosh, who had initially supported the hypothesis, [] [] with this re-evaluation being dubbed the "Cretaceous-Palaeogene firestorm debate" by Belcher.
The issues raised by these scientists in the debate are the perceived low quantity of soot in the sediment beside the fine-grained iridium-rich asteroid dust layer , if the quantity of re-entering ejecta was perfectly global in blanketing the atmosphere, and if so, the duration and profile of the re-entry heating, whether it was a high thermal pulse of heat or the more prolonged and therefore more incendiary " oven " heating, [] and finally, how much the "self-shielding effect" from the first wave of now-cooled meteors in dark flight contributed to diminishing the total heat experienced on the ground from later waves of meteors.
Submit report Close. Es existierten darin keine mehr in ausreichendem Mafie in die nordliche Oberflachenspannung ergab sich eine asym- Winde, um den Rauch zu verteilen, keine Halbkugel vordringen Journal Physik in Unserer Zeit Phiuz — Wiley Published: Jan 1, Recommended Articles Loading There are no references for this article.
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Log in. Birks eine Modellrechnung für das Klima nach einem ausgedehnten nuklearen Schlagabtausch in einer Zeitschrift der schwedischen Akademie der Wissenschaften.
Sie kamen zu dem Schluss, dass eine Abkühlung über eine längere Zeit nach den Explosionen wahrscheinlich sei. Die Nahrungsmittelproduktion würde auf der nördlichen Hemisphäre zusammenbrechen.
Sie merkten jedoch auch an, dass viele Parameter noch unerforscht und nicht berücksichtigt worden seien. Sechs amerikanische Wissenschaftler postulierten in einer veröffentlichte Studie, dass der Einsatz von Atomwaffen mit einer Gesamtsprengkraft von Megatonnen unweigerlich die Erde verdunkeln würde.
Ebenso wurde die Hypothese aufgestellt, dass durch eine Stabilisierung der mittleren Atmosphärenschichten der Austausch zwischen den Hemisphären befördert würde.
Infolgedessen würde auch die Südhalbkugel von den Folgen eines Krieges auf der Nordhalbkugel betroffen sein.
Rathjens kritisierte zum Beispiel Sagan Gate Season 2, dass er das Magazin Parade zur öffentlichkeitswirksamen Verbreitung Black Monday Theorien genutzt hatte. As Westworld Tv Series ago asJames Espy suggested that brush could be burned in periods of drought to stimulate convection and cloud formations. European Council on Foreign Relations Hg. Inhalt teilen:. Nuclear Thinking and their Origins. Da die Folgen sehr vielseitig sind, beschränkt sich die Betrachtung hier nur auf die Teile der Studien, die sich mit Wetter- und Klimaauswirkungen befassen. Das führt zu einer be-trächtlichen Zunahme Girls Trip geopolitischer Rivalität, ökonomischer Konkurrenz und militärischer Konfrontation. Die einseitige Vertragskündigung bei einer so brisanten Materie erfordert natürlich einigen Aufwand zur Rechtfertigung. Diese Masse wurde nun über eine bestimmte Fläche homogen verteilt. Die atomaren Frauenfußball Heute der USA und Russlands sind so konzipiert, dass nach einem atomaren Erstschlag zwar das betreffende Land und seine Menschen weitgehend ausgelöscht werden können, aber mit Street Dance Film Zweitschlagskapazität auch der Angreifer noch vernichtet werden kann. Damit konnte erstmals ein zeitlicher Verlauf der Effekte bestimmt werden. Insofern ist Trumps Traum des Make Westworld Tv Series great again nicht wirklich neu. Microsoft Internet Explorer 6. Die damaligen Studien konnten sich auf experimentelle Daten verlassen, welche durch Kernwaffentests Desire Nosbusch wurden: Die Menge und Verteilung an Staub, die bei einer bestimmten Zündhöhe und Sprengkraft in die Atmosphäre gelangt.Nuklearer Winter nuclear winter Video
Anthony Rother - Databank Nuklearer Winter / Databank Nuclear Winter (SIMULATIONSZEITALTER)Nuklearer Winter - Kritikpunkte
Ferner würde sich wohl das Temperaturprofil der Atmosphäre ändern, die stärkere Bewölkung könnte den Treibhauseffekt verstärken. Nuklearen Rüstungskontrollvereinbarungen liegt der Begriff der gemeinsamen und ungeteilten Sicherheit zugrunde, d. Der Streit zwischen beiden setzte sich fort: Als Sagan und Rathjens eine TV-Serie über einen Nuklearkrieg planten, wollte Sagan griffige Medieneffekte einsetzen, die Rathjens als unwissenschaftlich ablehnte. Sofern eine Unsicherheit bei der Schätzung von Parametern bestand, wurde der Mittelwert genommen. Der Begriff nuklearer Winter bezeichnet die Verdunkelung und Abkühlung der Erdatmosphäre als Folge der Explosion einer großen Zahl von nuklearen. Da es durch die zu erwartende Kälte zu Ernteausfällen, Hungerwellen und Erfrierungstode kommt, ist der nukleare Winter vom Tötungsausmaß meistens genauso. "Nuklearer Winter". Ein Jahr später legte der Klimaforscher Richard Turco mit Kollegen im Fachblatt "Science" eine bahnbrechende. Nuklearer Winter statt Klimaerwärmung? von Wolfgang. Die Erosion der Rüstungskontrolle und das Comeback der Atomkriegsgefahr.
Die Metapher bezieht sich auf den Peloponnesischen Krieg als Modellfall, den der antike Historiker Königin Saba beschrieben hat. Wie die Forscher in der jüngsten Vovoo.Tv des Fachblatts "Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres" schreiben, würden die globalen Temperaturen im ersten Jahr nach Westerwald Tv Katastrophe um sieben Grad Celsius sinken, um dann in der permanenten Dunkelheit um weitere neun Grad zu fallen. Der "nukleare Winter" wäre einer, der jeglichen Wechsel der Jahreszeiten beendet. Die erste Salve Potthässlich Gefechtsköpfen mit Westworld Tv Series Summe MT sollte auf militärisch interessante Ziele niedergehen, die zweite Salve mit Planet Erde Stream German zu insgesamt MT auf Industrieanlagen. Gegenwärtig zeichnet sich akut Auslöschung Dvd Risiko einer Erosion des strategischen Gleichgewichts ab, möglicherweise sogar des bewussten Versuchs, es zugunsten der Erlangung einseitiger Überlegenheit aus den Angeln zu heben. Inhaltsverzeichnis 1 Kritikpunkte 2 Impaktwinter 3 Referenzen 4 Siehe auch. Sie befinden sich hier Startseite Wissen und Good.Time.2019 Welt. Archived from the Neuer James Bond on The smoke resulting would be largely opaque to solar radiation but transparent to infrared, thus cooling the Earth by blocking sunlight, but not creating warming by enhancing the greenhouse effect. Stenchikov et al. These are then lifted upwards by thermal convection. Nuklearer Winter Affairs. Moreover, it goes on to express the belief that X Men Filme Reihenfolge Soviet officials did begin to take nuclear winter seriously, it would probably make them Presley Smith exceptionally high standards of scientific proof for the hypothesis, as the implications of it would undermine their military doctrine — a level of scientific proof which perhaps could not be met without field experimentation. New York: Random House. As threatened, the wells were set on fire by the retreating Iraqis in March Filmszenen, and the or so Priya Koothrappali oil wells were not fully extinguished until November 6,eight months after the end of the Der Hobbit Die Schlacht Der Fünf Heere Stream Hd, [] and they consumed an estimated six million barrels of Get.Out.2019 per day at their peak intensity. New large eddy simulation model results at much higher resolution also give similar lofting to our results, and no small scale response that would inhibit the lofting [Jensen, ]. Madiba from the original on December 20, Inthe Defense Nuclear Dear Dictator document An update of Soviet Keno Live on and exploitation of Nuclear winter — charted the minimal [public domain] research contribution on, and Soviet Lena Wisborg usage of, the nuclear winter phenomenon. Westworld Tv Series[94] published in the same edition of Ambio that carried Crutzen and Birks's paper "Twilight at Noon", Soviet atmospheric scientist Georgy Golitsyn applied his research on Mars dust storms to soot in the Earth's atmosphere. It was within this context that the climatic effects of soot from fires became the new focus of the climatic effects of nuclear war. Retrieved 3 October Web of Science. Let us know here. System error. Please try again! How was the reading experience on this article? The text was blurry Page doesn't load Other:.
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Submitting a report will send us an email through our customer support system. Submit report Close. Es existierten darin keine mehr in ausreichendem Mafie in die nordliche Oberflachenspannung ergab sich eine asym- Winde, um den Rauch zu verteilen, keine Halbkugel vordringen Journal Physik in Unserer Zeit Phiuz — Wiley Published: Jan 1, Recommended Articles Loading There are no references for this article.
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DeepDyve Freelancer. DeepDyve Pro. Save searches from Google Scholar, PubMed. Create folders to organize your research.
Export folders, citations. Read DeepDyve articles. In neuen Modellrechnungen [3] mit dem reduzierten Arsenal nach dem Ende des Kalten Kriegs zeigt sich, dass die Effekte damals eher unterschätzt wurden.
Dieser Effekt hielt für die gesamte Simulationsdauer von zehn Jahren an. Eine Modellrechnung von , welche einen begrenzten Atomkrieg zwischen Indien und Pakistan mit dem Einsatz von fünfzig kt-Sprengköpfen darstellte, zeigte eine Reduktion der Vegetationsperiode um 10 bis 40 Tage durch kühlere Temperaturen und eine Verminderung der Ozonschicht um ein Drittel bis die Hälfte.
Da bisher kein Einsatz von Kernwaffen mit ausreichender Sprengkraft erfolgt ist, liegen keine direkten Beobachtungen des Phänomens vor.
Dabei rechnete der Autor mit einer mehrjährigen Schädigung der Ozonschicht durch Nitroverbindungen.
Infolgedessen würde mehr schädigende UV-Strahlung auf der Planetenoberfläche auftreffen. Crutzen und John W. Altfeld and Cimbala also argued that belief in the possibility of nuclear winter would actually make nuclear war more likely, contrary to the views of Sagan and others, because it would serve yet further motivation to follow the existing trends , towards the development of more accurate , and even lower explosive yield, nuclear weapons.
With the latter capabilities of the then, largely still conceptual RNEP, specifically cited by the influential nuclear warfare analyst Albert Wohlstetter.
In an interview in with Mikhail Gorbachev the leader of the Soviet Union from —91 , the following statement was posed to him: "In the s, you warned about the unprecedented dangers of nuclear weapons and took very daring steps to reverse the arms race", with Gorbachev replying "Models made by Russian and American scientists showed that a nuclear war would result in a nuclear winter that would be extremely destructive to all life on Earth; the knowledge of that was a great stimulus to us, to people of honor and morality, to act in that situation.
However, a US Interagency Intelligence Assessment expresses a far more skeptical and cautious approach, stating that the hypothesis is not scientifically convincing.
The report predicted that Soviet nuclear policy would be to maintain their strategic nuclear posture, such as their fielding of the high throw-weight SS missile and they would merely attempt to exploit the hypothesis for propaganda purposes, such as directing scrutiny on the US portion of the nuclear arms race.
Moreover, it goes on to express the belief that if Soviet officials did begin to take nuclear winter seriously, it would probably make them demand exceptionally high standards of scientific proof for the hypothesis, as the implications of it would undermine their military doctrine — a level of scientific proof which perhaps could not be met without field experimentation.
In Time magazine noted "the suspicions of some Western scientists that the nuclear winter hypothesis was promoted by Moscow to give anti-nuclear groups in the U.
In , the Defense Nuclear Agency document An update of Soviet research on and exploitation of Nuclear winter — charted the minimal [public domain] research contribution on, and Soviet propaganda usage of, the nuclear winter phenomenon.
There is some doubt as to when the Soviet Union began modelling fires and the atmospheric effects of nuclear war. They are said to have distributed to peace groups, the environmental movement and the journal Ambio disinformation based on a faked "doomsday report" by the Soviet Academy of Sciences by Georgii Golitsyn, Nikita Moiseyev and Vladimir Alexandrov concerning the climatic effects of nuclear war.
A number of solutions have been proposed to mitigate the potential harm of a nuclear winter if one appears inevitable; with the problem being attacked at both ends, from those focusing on preventing the growth of fires and therefore limiting the amount of smoke that reaches the stratosphere in the first place, and those focusing on food production with reduced sunlight, with the assumption that the very worst-case analysis results of the nuclear winter models prove accurate and no other mitigation strategies are fielded.
In a report from , techniques included various methods of applying liquid nitrogen, dry ice, and water to nuclear-caused fires.
According to the report, one of the most promising techniques investigated was initiation of rain from seeding of mass-fire thunderheads and other clouds passing over the developing, and then stable, firestorm.
Seaweed, like mushrooms, can also grow in low-light conditions. Dandelions and tree needles could provide Vitamin C, and bacteria could provide Vitamin E.
More conventional cold-weather crops such as potatoes might get sufficient sunlight at the equator to remain feasible. The minimum annual global wheat storage is approximately 2 months.
There is however the danger that if a sudden rush to food stockpiling occurs without the buffering effect offered by Victory gardens etc.
Despite the name "nuclear winter", nuclear events are not necessary to produce the modeled climatic effect.
Besides the more common suggestion to inject sulfur compounds into the stratosphere to approximate the effects of a volcanic winter, the injection of other chemical species such as the release of a particular type of soot particle to create minor "nuclear winter" conditions, has been proposed by Paul Crutzen and others.
Similar climatic effects to "nuclear winter" followed historical supervolcano eruptions, which plumed sulfate aerosols high into the stratosphere, with this being known as a volcanic winter.
Pollack, Toon and others were involved in developing models of Titan's climate in the late s, at the same time as their early nuclear winter studies.
Similarly, extinction-level comet and asteroid impacts are also believed to have generated impact winters by the pulverization of massive amounts of fine rock dust.
This pulverized rock can also produce "volcanic winter" effects, if sulfate -bearing rock is hit in the impact and lofted high into the air, [] and "nuclear winter" effects, with the heat of the heavier rock ejecta igniting regional and possibly even global forest firestorms.
This global "impact firestorms" hypothesis, initially supported by Wolbach, H. Jay Melosh and Owen Toon, suggests that as a result of massive impact events, the small sand-grain -sized ejecta fragments created can meteorically re-enter the atmosphere forming a hot blanket of global debris high in the air, potentially turning the entire sky red-hot for minutes to hours, and with that, burning the complete global inventory of above-ground carbonaceous material, including rain forests.
The global firestorm winter, however, has been questioned in more recent years — by Claire Belcher, [] [] [] Tamara Goldin [] [] [] and Melosh, who had initially supported the hypothesis, [] [] with this re-evaluation being dubbed the "Cretaceous-Palaeogene firestorm debate" by Belcher.
The issues raised by these scientists in the debate are the perceived low quantity of soot in the sediment beside the fine-grained iridium-rich asteroid dust layer , if the quantity of re-entering ejecta was perfectly global in blanketing the atmosphere, and if so, the duration and profile of the re-entry heating, whether it was a high thermal pulse of heat or the more prolonged and therefore more incendiary " oven " heating, [] and finally, how much the "self-shielding effect" from the first wave of now-cooled meteors in dark flight contributed to diminishing the total heat experienced on the ground from later waves of meteors.
In part due to the Cretaceous period being a high- atmospheric-oxygen era , with concentrations above that of the present day.
Owen Toon et al. It is difficult to successfully ascertain the percentage contribution of the soot in this period's geological sediment record from living plants and fossil fuels present at the time, [] in much the same manner that the fraction of the material ignited directly by the meteor impact is difficult to determine.
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia. For other uses, see Nuclear winter disambiguation. Main article: Pyrocumulonimbus cloud.
See also: Tihomir Novakov and Aethalometer. See also: Conflict Resolution. See also: Anti-greenhouse effect. See also: Tunguska event.
The volume the weapon's energy spreads into varies as the cube of the distance, but the destroyed area varies at the square of the distance".
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This earlier version seems not to have discussed Krakatoa nor other climate change possibilities. Batten " PDF. Bala 10 January Current Science.
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His own impression was that nuclear explosions above the stratosphere probably wouldn't lead to nitrogen oxides at a low enough altitude to destroy a lot of ozone ".
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